After being drafted 7th overall out of TCU by the Reds in 2019, Nick Lodolo hasn’t pitched in an ‘official’ capacity very much as a pro due to a shoulder injury that forced him to miss major time in 2021, and there wasn’t a Minor League season at all due to the pandemic. Coming into 2022, Lodolo had tossed only 69 frames, racking up 30 K’s over 18.1 innings in 2019 and a 78 K/11 BB performance in 2021.
Lodolo has a very projectable frame, listed at 6’6, 205 pounds, his body still has plenty of room for added strength/weight in the future both in his upper and lower halves, which has the potential to add a few ticks of velocity to his fastball as well. Despite being tall, lanky, and a left-handed pitcher (zing) he controls his body well, especially when it comes to repeating his deceptive delivery.
He has a crossfire stride in his delivery, but also does a very good job of keeping his upper half especially closed off throughout his delivery. Lodolo also utilizes a high front-arm in his delivery which pairs well with his arm stroke that also stays in line and hidden from the hitter’s view for an extended period. His arm exhibits looseness and some quickness to it but he does have a big stab in his arm circle, along with a high back elbow throughout that circle.
Even though Cincinnati’s home video angle is trash, I was able to find a few more centered angles of Lodolo. He’s a pitcher who appears to have above average hip/shoulder separation and knowing that his body is still far from fully matured, that’s another indicator there is likely another tick or two of velocity in Lodolo in the future.
Lodolo pitches off his sinker that has averaged 94.1 mph so far in 2022 and ranges between 93-97 mph. He primarily works east and west with his sinker, but he effectively elevates up in the zone frequently enough to not allow hitters to only look for heaters in the lower quadrants of the zone. He has advanced feel for his fastball command, which I project to be at least plus in the next couple of years. Lodolo’s sinker has solid (55) movement by having tail and significant, late sinking action.
His slider, which he’s thrown 25.2% of the time in 2022, tends to be more of a SL/CB hybrid most of the time with its wide, sweepy shape that also shows significant depth. This is a very tough offering for LHH’s to handle with how wide it can get coming out of his low slot. He has solid feel for landing the breaking ball in the zone, as well as expanding with it when he’s ahead, but he also manipulates the amount of depth on the pitch while not always sacrificing tightness/bite. I have it as an average pitch at present and he flashed enough plus ones in my video looks to be confident in putting a future 60 on it.
Lodolo’s changeup, which he’s using at 16.1% so far this season, will flash plus on occasion and then others he’ll toss a 30-grade one up there. Here’s an example of one of Lodolo’s changeups that he gets very limited action on and pays the price for that.
On that change that Machado takes out of the yard, there’s very little movement/action on the pitch and in turn, it’s about as effective as a BP fastball. The ones that he throws that I’d classify as plus have late diving action with significant depth to them. Here’s one of those:
Lodolo has good arm speed and intent when delivering the change but it’s the pitch he has the least consistency on both in terms of the shape and movement he gets on the pitch. It’s also the offering in which his command tends to get shaky on most frequently. It’s a fringe-average offering at present for me and I think that it’ll reach a 55 offering in the future because he already flashes solid action; he just needs to get more consistent and eliminate the really bad ones. It’s not an offering he utilizes against same-side batters; he’s only thrown one same-side changeup so far in 2022. I’d really like to see him use it more against LH batters, even as a show pitch that he throws enough that LH batters have to at least respect a third pitch when facing Lodolo.
I think Lodolo is going to be an arm that more than holds his own as a 24-year-old at the ML level with very limited Minor League experience underneath his belt and sharpens an already advanced repertoire as he throws more innings. I see him as a future value 60 and a #2 SP on a championship caliber team. Despite not projecting to have a future plus-plus offering in his arsenal, every pitch he does have projects as solid-average or plus which along with future plus control and command, plus deception, and a frame with projection, I think he develops into a very valuable starter and will be a fun arm to watch in the coming years.
