Gordon Graceffo, a right-handed pitching prospect in the Cardinals system has really caught some eyes this season after an optimistic 26 inning 2021 season. Graceffo was a 5th round pick (151st overall) by St. Louis in the 2021 Draft so it goes without saying that he wasn’t considered a highly touted prospect coming out of Villanova. In his junior year at Nova in 2021 he threw 82 innings, had a 9.4 K/9, and a 1.4 BB/9. A solid line for sure, but not so dominant that anyone would predict he’d be ascending through the Minor Leagues at the pace in which he currently is. Really the only very impressive data point from his college career is that he didn’t allow a single HR in 2021.
I got ahold of a few Area Scouts who had looks at Graceffo during his ’21 campaign with Villanova and all of them reported Graceffo sitting 93-96 with his fastball during his junior season. In his brief pro debut in 2021, his heater averaged 94.1 MPH and so far during the 2022 season, the same offering sits at 94.6 MPH. Very few of Graceffo’s Peoria outings this year are available on video, so now that he’s made his AA debut I have better video to evaluate off of to pair with the pitch data I’ve collected from sources with MLB teams.
Graceffo made his AA debut on May 27th in Tulsa where he tossed seven frames, struck out four, walked none, and allowed 2 earned runs. Graceffo doesn’t have a very projectable frame as it’s already a strong, sturdy one that appears to be maxed out physically. In his start in Tulsa, his fastball ranged between 94-99 MPH, which he maintained for his whole outing while also showing a curve ball (79-83), slider (86-90), and a changeup (80-85).
His fastball, a 4-seamer will flash some arm side run, but most are pretty straight and rely on the offerings solid (55 grade) life more so than the movement. His heater played especially well in the upper portion of the zone, but he didn’t elevate by design as much as many pitchers with similar FB’s are doing today. Both of his breaking balls were inconsistent in regards to their tightness and shape, the CB was mostly a short 12-6 breaker with fringey tightness at best and projects to be a show-me pitch for him in the future. The SL flashed average more often than the CB did, his best ones had late, two-plane break but he mixed in several short, cutter-like ones that were nowhere near as effective. For me, his best secondary pitch projects to be his CH which he throws with quality intent and arm speed which adds an extra element of deception. His CH which often times has a 15 MPH velocity separation from his heater also showed late fade and sinking action which slipped below both LH and RH batters’ barrels.
Pitching prospects who really blow up (in a good way) once they hit the pro ranks are important to put into context and not get wrapped up in the burst of success (or failures). So what should we expect of Graceffo during his prime in coming years? The FB/CH are the two offerings that I have graded out to be above average offerings in the future. He flashed enough quality sliders to give me confidence in throwing a future average (50) grade on it. I don’t ever see the CB getting to an average level, but as long as he uses it sparingly enough to catch batters off guard and steal some strikes, it can be a usable pitch for him. The result of those offering grades is one of a back-end SP (#4/5).
There are certainly some Cardinals fans or prospect junkies who might be disappointed with a projection of a #4/5 SP based on Graceffo’s pro body of work so far, but it’s important to remember how valuable and good #4/5 SP’s are at the Major League level. Once you consider Graceffo’s draft position and what is usually to be expected value wise out of a college pitcher drafted in the 5th round, the more you should be excited about the prospect of Graceffo one day slotting into the back of a rotation.
