Shane Bieber as of this writing is carrying a 2.96 ERA and 4.04 FIP spanning 45.2 innings so far in the 2023 season. The most notable data point from the early-goings of Bieber’s season is how drastically his strikeout numbers have decreased. In 2022, Bieber posted the lowest K/9 of his career with a 8.9 K/9 mark after punching out 198 batters over an even 200 frames.
So far in 2023, Bieber has only fanned 30 batters over his 45.2 innings, which is a K/9 rate of 5.9. I wanted to dive into the driving forces behind the plummet in strikeouts for Bieber and how I foresee the rest of this season playing out for him in that regard too. Bieber’s pitch usage and arsenal has no major changes compared to years past and while the spin rate on his breaking pitches is about 100 rpm’s lower on average, they are nearly identical to his spin rates from 2022 so that’s not what I’m attributing much of the decline in strikeouts to.
After going through a lot of Bieber’s video from 2023 and the previous couple of years, it appeared to me that his slider has had a tendency to back up on him more so far this year than in years past, which I believe is resulting in more foul balls and balls in play against the offering. Below is a quick chart to show that on average, Bieber’s slider from a data standpoint is still very much in line with his previous couple of seasons.
Year | Avg Velo | V-break | H-break | Spin Rate | S/M % |
2023 | 84.5 | 36.1 in | 3.4 in | 2509 rpm | 26.2% |
2022 | 85.0 | 35.1 in | 2.8 in | 2515 rpm | 40.0% |
2021 | 85.7 | 35.6 in | 2.1 in | 2683 rpm | 45.5% |
To me, one of the best traits of Bieber’s slider throughout his career is how abrupt and sharp the tilt he gets on the offering, and that’s something that hasn’t always been there for him through his first seven starts this season. When I talk about ‘tilt’ I’m referring to the late hint of diagonal break the pitch has to the eyes. Here are two examples from 2022 that illustrate this especially well to me.
The next couple of videos illustrate what I mentioned above about Bieber throwing more sliders that back up on him and/or lack the same tilt we’ve all grown accustomed to seeing Bieber throw and become easier offerings to put bat-to-ball to. In the next videos from this season, you’ll see Bieber’s slider absent a few key traits that has made it such a quality pitch for him over years past.
I don’t mean to give the impression that Bieber has lost his slider or that it’s not a plus-plus pitch for him at times this season. I’m saying to my eyes in a small seven start sample size he has had that plus-plus version less consistently than he has up to this season. Here are a few sliders from Bieber this year that very much have double-plus characteristics.
Even with everything I just mentioned about Bieber’s slider in 2023, batters still are not doing damage against the offering. On the 188 sliders Bieber has thrown this year, batters are posting a slash line of .211/.238/.368 with an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph. However, as the chart at the beginning of this shows, his swing and miss rate is down 13.8% from 40.0% to 26.2%. The sharp, late tilt Bieber consistently has gotten out of his sliders up to this year I believe has been the factor in generating so many whiffs in the past and without being able to get that shape as consistently, batters are getting wood on the offering more in the form of foul balls and weak balls in play.
Bieber has shown and continues to show an incredible feel for every pitch in his arsenal, so the fact his slider hasn’t been in top form through his first seven starts of the season isn’t as much cause of concern as it would be with some pitchers. Because Bieber’s velocity and other pitch data continue to be in line with past performance, I think it’s a good bet to count on Bieber finding consistent tilt on his slider again in the near future and see his strikeout numbers return closer to past form than he’s shown thus far in 2023.