I caught Michael Wacha’s most recent start against Atlanta where he tossed six scoreless frames and punched out 10. The thing that really turned my head about the outing was how different his changeup looks compared to years past, and in a good way.
Wacha leaned on his changeup the most of any secondary pitch in 2022, throwing it 29.8% of the time. His changeup also yielded great results last season – batters posted a .242 wOBA and averaged an 84 mph exit velocity on balls in play. Something Wacha has done with his changeup since 2021 is use it almost as much to RH-hitters as he does to LH-hitters.
Year | Avg Velo | V-Break | H-Break |
2023 | 81.1 mph | 31.6 inches | 14.5 inches |
2022 | 84.3 mph | 26.2 inches | 12.5 inches |
Even just aesthetically, Wacha’s cambio this year looks greatly improved and has a larger velocity gap from his heater than in years past. Similiary to years past, Wacha throws the offering with fastball arm speed which adds an extra element of deception to it. Let’s take a look at a couple of plus-changeups from Wacha. The first is from the 2022 season and the other is from last week:
The change from 2022 has late depth and slight fading action that slips under Bobby Witt Jr’s bat. The changeup he’s shown in 2023 however has significantly more movement, both vertically and horizontally. Wacha’s changeup averaging 3 mph slower this year is one reason we’re seeing more movement on the offering, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he altered his grip or grip strength when throwing it, which would also be a large factor in the increased effectiveness he’s shown with the pitch.
Wacha improving upon his most-used secondary pitch is a big development and the type of thing that can carry a pitcher through a breakout season. Wacha’s has generated a 43.8% whiff rate on the 56 changeups he’s thrown so far in 2023. The velo separation and movement of the changeup makes it capable of generating whiffs against hitters from both sides – the videos below are examples of that. The one he throws to Kris Bryant is the best one he’s thrown of the year for my money.
Despite Wacha’s fastball velocity being down nearly 2 mph through his first two starts of the year, if he can continue to maintain the quality of his changeup I think he’s poised to put up a very productive year in the rotation.