— Muchas gracias to both FanGraphs and Baseball America for uploading these videos.
Mason Auer is a 23-year old outfield prospect in the Tampa Bay system who was drafted in the 5th round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of San Jac (JC) in Texas. He covered both A and A+ ball in 2022, getting nearly equal plate-appearances (259 (A), 270 (A+) at both levels. He was slightly old for the A-ball level while there and was a year and a half younger than the average player at the A+ level.
Between the two levels last season, Auer posted an impressive slash of .290/.372/.487 along with 15 HR’s and was 48-55 in his SB attempts. Additionally, he racked up 21 doubles and 13 triples over the course of the season. He played 52 games in CF and 54 games in RF and all the sources I spoke with think he’s more than capable of handling both at a solid-average level and his plus-plus arm is a real weapon in the outfield.
Frame: Large build with significant strength at present. Even though there’s plus-strength on bones at present, the frame still has some leanness and projection to it.
Hit: Square, upright setup with very slight bend in knees. Utilizes a toe-tap trigger that flashes inconsistency in timing, medium rhythmic hand load, high-slot entry. Bat to 45-degree angle during load, utilizes lower half well, quiet head.
Path: Loft present in path through zone. Shows some adjustability but some swing/miss against higher caliber arms should be expected. Shows above-average bat speed with looseness present throughout.
Most hitters with the frame and strength that Auer possess tend to have an element of stiffness present in their stroke. That’s not a problem Auer really deals with, and the swing is rather loose and fluid. His toe-tap stride isn’t always on time and that occasionally leads to quality of contact issues, but it’s not a major concern of mine as of this writing. The video clip below is a good visual example of this. His stride foot is slightly late getting down and it results in a oppo-flare foul ball.
In 2022, Auer had a 79.8% in-zone contact rate, which is impressive considering his power output and I believe speaks to his bat-to-ball skills that don’t immediately jump out at you upon first look. He also posted a chase rate of 25.6% last season and showed some vulnerability to sharp breaking balls out of the zone which led to a 55/110 BB/K ratio in 2022.
Summation: I see Auer on track to be a 50-grade, average everyday player at the Major League level with the ability to handle both centerfield and the corners in the outfield. My projection of Auer as a future average hit, solid-average game power bat with solid-average defensive chops and his ability to efficiently swipe bags brings supplemental value to his game. While I don’t foresee Auer being an impact player on either side of the ball, I like his game enough that I see him as an everyday player, which I don’t think is a commonly held projection in the scouting community as of this writing. Auer is still a bit of an unknown even in the prospect world, but I suspect that won’t be the case at the conclusion of the 2023 season.
Future Value: 50 (Average, everyday player)