FB Velo: 60/60
FB Mv/Life: 70/70
FB Command: 30/30
CB: 60/60
SL: 70/70
CH: 60/60
Deception: 60/60
Control: 30/30
Delivery (40): Works out of stretch, medium leg lift, ¼ turn, online average stride, level shoulders, inconsistent timing upon foot land, solid hip/shoulder separation, fall off 1B, medium effort
Arm Action (50): Short and compact arm circle, high back elbow, quick, loose.
I had the fortune of scouting Alex Reyes several times as he was coming up as a starting-pitcher in the Cardinals system. In my eyes, Reyes still holds the title for best pure stuff from a starting-pitcher prospect I’ve ever scouted in-person. That was obviously several years and multiple arm surgeries ago. His most recent shoulder surgery will cause him to miss the beginning of the 2023 season as well.
The Dodgers inking Reyes to a $1.1M deal for 2023, with a $3M club option for 2024 that has a lot of appearance-based incentives included gives both sides of this deal tremendous upside. Throughout his professional career Reyes has shown some of the most electric stuff in the game. It’s hard to tell how well a pitcher bounces back from a surgery until they’re back out on the mound in game situations, but if Reyes rebounds enough to possess overall stuff resembling what he’s shown in the past, he is capable of being the go-to reliever on one of the best clubs in baseball.
Reyes utilizes two fastballs, a two and four-seam. In 2021, which was the last season Reyes appeared, he threw the four-seam 30.7% of the time and the sinker 23.8% of the time. Both the sinker and four-seam sit 95-98 mph and had near identical averages in 2021 – 96.6 on the four-seam and 96.7 for the sinker.
The four-seam has plus ride through the zone and misses the most bats when it’s elevated. The four-seam has above-average backspin (2384 rpm) and the heater really appears to jump at hitters since he uses such a short, compact arm circle and has an exceptionally quick arm. Below are two videos that showcase the bat-missing ability Reyes’ four-seamer has:
The sinker, when he’s working down in the zone with it, has late tail and sinking action, which allows him to consistently avoid barrels. Here’s a good example of him throwing a sinker to left-handed hitting Christian Yelich. You’ll see the pitch has the appearance of being down and center-cut until the last second when the subtle tail/sink doesn’t allow Yelich to do anything more than defensively foul it off.
It’s not plus movement on the sinker, but he does show more feel for the zone when he’s throwing the sinker in comparison to the four-seam. Reyes isn’t and doesn’t need to be a spot-up, average command pitcher to be effective out of the bullpen. Reyes is one of the few arms that has sharp enough stuff that he’ll have a lot of success if he can just land offerings in the zone.
However, Reyes’ sinker has a tendency to really straighten out when it’s anywhere above the bottom of the zone. When it’s elevated at all, it essentially becomes a four-seam but without the plus ride. Here’s an example that I think shows this well:
The pitch Reyes threw the least in 2021 was his curveball (79.4 mph avg). He threw it 105 times, which was 8.4% of the time overall. It’s an incredibly sharp breaker that most of the time shows deep 12/6 shape with plus-plus bite and tightness. The curveball averaged double-plus spin (2811 rpm) but it’s also the offering he struggles to land in the zone the most – only 31.4% of the ones he threw in 2021 were in the zone. For me, Reyes’ breaker has such quality shape and late teeth that it’s an offering that will generate consistent chases if he’s even near the zone with it, which batters’ 50% whiff rate against the offering in 2021 shows. Reyes threw the offering far more often to LHHs (83 total) than he did to RHHs (22 total) and it’s an offering that I’d like to see him utilize more if he’s comfortable doing so.
Reyes most used secondary offering in 2021 was his slider, which he threw 28% of the time and had an average velocity of 86.4 mph. The majority of the ones he’ll throw have true two-plane break with late tilting action and plus bite. The offering’s spin averaged 2588 rpm and generated a 55.8% whiff rate. There’s more feel for control on the slider than he shows on his curveball. He landed the slider in the zone 39.1% of the time in 2021.
At times, the slider will get more wide and sweepy-like but always maintains the quality tightness and spin which in turn, maintains the effectiveness. Every shape-version of the slider Reyes throws is sharp and more than capable of missing bats.
Closing out the Reyes arsenal is his changeup, which averaged 90.3 mph in 2021 and an offering he threw 9% of the time. It’s a power-change, as is evident by the 90.3 mph average velocity, and Reyes does a good job of maintaining his fastball arm speed when throwing the cambio. The offering features very late bottom-action and additionally flashes fade on occasion.
Out of the 113 changeups Reyes threw throughout the 2021 season, only 11 of those were to right-handed batters. Since most of the effectiveness of the pitch is the slight change of pace from his fastballs along with the late depth on the pitch, I’d like to see him show the offering to same-side hitters more often, even if it’s just so they have to respect that pitch a bit more. Reyes’ change plays well off the rest of his pitch-mix and can miss both LH and RH bats.
There’s no question there are a lot of variables at play when it comes to determining the future of Reyes. Multiple arm surgeries and volatile control/command ability are the two big ones that come to mind for me. It’s important to remember just how volatile the health and performance of 99% of relief pitchers are in professional baseball, and that very few bullpen arms can ever be counted on for consistent success. With Reyes, I know he’s had some of the loudest stuff in the world and no one should ever forget the phrase “stuff plays”, especially when it comes to relievers. No one can control or predict Reyes’ future health, so for now I’ll bet my money on the stuff and let the chips fall where they may.