Delivery: Rhythmic SWU from 3B side of rubber, medium leg lift, online stride down the hill, no turn, slightly elevated front side, fringe extension, under control, mild effort, falls off to 1B side.
Arm Action: Compact circle, clean path with no restriction present, slight plunge, quick arm, OH arm slot.
Deception: A 6-foot-7 frame in itself gives batters a different look in the box, but nothing in delivery creates outlier deception.
Fastball: (95-98/T99) (96.5 average) (2400 RPM)- Even though Painter’s 6’7 height isn’t what many would consider ideal for a four-seam dominant pitcher, he generates plus carry on his heater that produces ride through the zone overwhelming to many batters. The pitch plays especially well when elevated, but Painter’s control is far ahead of his command at present which doesn’t allow him to always get it to his desired spot. There’s obvious feel for landing the pitch in the zone at present and I have him projected for future solid-average command which will be plenty given the other traits of the fastball. I think it’s likely he even adds a tick of velocity as the frame continues to add strength and mature.
Curveball: (77-81) (79.4 average) (2450 RPM)- Offering shows shallow 12/6 shape, while flashing 11/5 shape on occasion. Flashes solid tightness and bite, but far from consistent spin and shape at present. Hit and miss feel for the breaker but will go through streaks of putting it all together. With more consistency, Painter will have an above-average pitch in his curve.
Slider: (80-85) (82.7 average) (2535 RPM) Painter’s bread-and-butter secondary pitch. It’s a wide, two-plane breaker that shows plus tightness/bite often. The late horizontal and vertical break on the pitch make it effective against both RH and LH batters and generated a 33.8% swing/miss rate in 2022. He shows advanced feel for locating the offering, as well as manipulating it to a firmer, shorter version on occasion.
Changeup: (86-90) (87.2 average)- Considering Painter likely very rarely ever needed a changeup in his prep days, the potential he flashes in the offering is impressive. Easily Painter’s least used pitch, he throws the cambio with proper arm speed and generates late bottom action at its best that slips under bats. He carried a 57.6% miss rate on the change in 2022 which is obviously encouraging, but his feel for the offering will eventually need to drastically improve. Despite the large swing and miss metrics, only 39.6% of the changeups Painter threw last year were in the zone and the more advanced hitters he faces, the more he’ll have to at least show them the ability to land it for it to be effective. I’m betting on the feel coming along to the point that it’ll be a plus offering.
Summation:
I have Painter projected to be a future 70-grade starting pitcher who would be capable of being a #2 starter on a championship caliber club. I have him projected to have four-plus pitches in his arsenal, three of which being plus. Overall, the stuff is sharp and capable of missing bats while he also shows advanced feel for harnessing the electricity of his stuff and as he continues to refine that, the more success I see him having. Painter has a lot of productive innings at the Major League level ahead of him.
