I thought it was appropriate that after my last post was about postseason relievers who had an 80-grade pitch in their arsenal that I looked at Jason Adam’s Houdini act in Game 2 of the Rays/Guardians series. Adam’s changeup wasn’t one of the offerings I featured in the previous post, but after how effective it was in getting out of one of the biggest jams a pitcher can be in, I wanted to discuss it.
Jason Adam was in my pro coverage back when he was a starting pitcher in the Royals system. The stuff was never overwhelming, or even ML average in my eyes, as I didn’t turn in a report on him that projected him to even be a regular ML contributor, but rather an up/down depth arm.
Up until the 2022 season, the most Adam utilized his changeup was in 2020 when he threw it 15.4% of the time in the abbreviated season where he only posted 13.2 ML innings. Fast forward to 2022, Adam threw his cambio 32.2% of the time which resulted in batters swinging and missing 34.4% of the time.
Here’s a quick glance at Adam’s recent years pitch usage:
The Rays obviously saw something in Adam’s changeup that made them believe he could be an effective bullpen arm if he utilized it (much) more, and they were right. Getting back to Adam in Game 2 against the Guardians, he replaced Pete Fairbanks in the bottom of the 6th inning and inherited runners on 1st and 2nd with no one out. Adam’s first pitch out of the bullpen in already a tight spot is a backup slider that hits Amed Rosario and loads the bases for one of the best hitters in the world, Jose Ramirez.
To make things even stickier for Adam, he falls behind Ramirez 2-0 after throwing two fastballs up and out of the zone. When watching live, it appeared Adam was battling an understandable influx of adrenaline which appeared to hinder his control/command for his heater. Below are the first two pitches in the Ramirez at-bat:
After falling behind 2-0, four of the last five pitches of this huge at-bat were Adam changeups and all of them I’d categorize as elite level, 80-grade offerings. Adam’s changeup is a firm, power version that averaged 90 mph throughout the 2022 season, only a 5 mph separation from his average four-seam fastball (94.8 mph).
This first changeup that is delivered to Ramirez is the best one he throws all inning, and induces a very ugly swing and miss cut. It appears like a center-cut fastball out of the hand and throughout most of its path before just absolutely falling off a table and ending up in the dirt. Incredible pitch execution, especially when you consider the situation, count, and hitter at the plate. Here’s the video of it:
Still behind in the count 2-1, Adam pulls out another top-shelf changeup to Ramirez that again shows significant late depth and arm side fade that he starts at Ramirez’s front hip and ends up on the inner-third of the dish.
With the count 2-2 in the Adam/Ramirez battle, Adam sticks with his bread and butter offering to left-handed hitters and delivers a 91 mph changeup that again features very late bottom action and produces as defensive of a swing from Ramirez as you’ll ever see as he is barely able to spoil the offering. Notice again how the pitch appears to be headed for the middle-to-upper portion of the zone and ends up at Ramirez’s shoelaces.
After throwing three straight elite changeups to Ramirez, Adam attempts to elevate his four-seamer against Ramirez at 95 mph. Hard to blame the logic to do so with Ramirez after he just saw three unfair changeups, and he locates the heater well in the upper portion of the zone. I’m convinced this offering would have put-away a good chunk of ML hitters, but Ramirez as we know is a different breed and deserves credit for being able to foul this pitch off and extend the at-bat.
Still at a 2-2 count, this next pitch is the last one of the at-bat and it’s not hard to understand why. Adam goes back to the changeup, this one at 91 mph. Adam maintains the same devastating depth on this one, but he also gets significantly more arm side fade than the ones we’ve seen to this point. He starts the changeup right at Ramirez and it fades all the way back to the inside black which obviously catches Ramirez off guard and the pitch slips under his bat for the biggest punchout of Adam’s career
After striking out Ramirez, Adam was still in a bases-loaded predicament, with left-handed hitting Josh Naylor coming to the plate. Adam sticks with his changeup (why wouldn’t he?) for the first three offerings of the at-bat, and while they all end up in the heart of the plate, they have enough late action to either result in a called strike or a foul ball of Naylor’s bat.
Here are all three of the changeups Adam threw to Naylor in this at-bat, one after another:
Having Naylor in the hole 0-2 and following three straight changeups to start the at-bat, Adam does what he did against Ramirez, and elevates his four-seamer up in the zone at 95 mph. The heater is several inches above the zone but Naylor is in ‘protect mode’ and slaps a ground ball right at Wander Franco which he converts into a 6-3 double play to get out of an inning which at one point looked like it had catastrophe potential.
Obviously this game eventually went to the Guardians after 15-innings, but Adam’s elite execution in as high of a leverage spot a pitcher can be in, especially of his changeup is the moment in this marathon game that stood out to me the most.