— I’m off the COVID IL and hope to do more posts when I have the downtime to do so.
With the Rays playoff odds sitting at 56%, but only a 0.2% chance of winning the AL East per FanGraphs, I still think you might see them unload a prospect or two before the trade deadline to bolster their MLB roster for the playoffs. One name that has caught some helium this season especially is LHP Mason Montgomery. As of this writing in 64.2 IP in A+ ball he has a 1.95 ERA, 15.9 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9. Not bad for a 2021 6th round pick out of Texas Tech in his first full season in pro ball.
I was only able to find a couple of his starts this year that had good video quality along with a somewhat centered camera, so I also spoke with a couple friends scouting for MLB clubs who saw him this season for additional thoughts and pitch data information.
Montgomery is an arm I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa is willing to part with for a quality MLB player, to take advantage of the recent spike in his prospect stock. He’s a left-hander who creates significant deception throughout his delivery, has solid carry on his fastball, and creates a real tough angle for batters, but the one area that seems a little underwhelming and inconsistent is his secondary pitch arsenal. He’s really blowing batters away in the zone with his four-seamer and flashing some average sliders here and there and very rarely showing his changeup. He has a lean, athletic frame so it wouldn’t surprise me if the fastball ticks up as he adds strength. He has an elevated front side throughout his simple delivery and a significant crossfire angle that creates that tough angle I mentioned earlier. He’s got a very compact, yet quick arm stroke which accounts for his fastball being so effective in the zone (30.1% IZ Miss Rate) and playing far above the velocity.
The fastball sat mainly between 90-92 mph but he was able to reach back for his top velocity (94 mph) when he needed it throughout both outings I watched. The pitch has about an average spin rate (2235 rpm) but is mainly effective because of the angle he creates and the deception in his delivery and arm stroke. It looks to me that his control is far ahead of his command, he consistently filled the zone up with the fastball but not frequent dot-up offerings. He seems to have better feel for vertical command compared to horizontal which he does a good job pitching to. I put a future average grade on Montgomery’s overall fastball command.
His slider really varied in shape in both my video looks as well as the sources I spoke with. He threw quite a few short, cutter-like versions in one of the starts that eventually morphed into a two-plane breaker by the end of the outing. Ranging between 82-85 mph, the short version does not have the same teeth or effectiveness as the ones with more depth seem to. He doesn’t control or command either version particularly well and relies on hitters chasing a bit more than you’d like to see. I put a future average on the offering because even though it does flash solid-average on occasion, it’s got a long ways to go consistency and control wise.
Montgomery has only thrown his changeup 4.7% of the time this season according to the Trackman sheet I saw, and only threw it a handful of times in my looks. He flashed a few average ones for me that had some late depth along with quality arm speed. One of the scouts I talked with put a 55 on the pitch, but unless he’s not throwing it for a developmental reason, it’s not really a pitch that he throws enough now for it to matter.
For me, Montgomery profiles best as a multi-inning reliever that can make a handful of starts throughout a season when depth is especially thin. I don’t see either of his secondary pitches being a pitch that will miss bats consistently at the ML level and I don’t see his fastball overwhelming hitters at the highest level the way it is now. Working in 1-2 inning stints regularly and likely even squeezing a couple more ticks out of his most effective offering and stretching it out to start when needed allows him to provide value in the role I think he’s best suited for (1-2 inn. RP) while also stepping in and providing value in ways he is capable of (emergency SP).
